樓市動向 今日: 1 | 主題: 74570

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1^#

發表於 08-9-20 16:28 |只看該作者 |倒序瀏覽 |打印

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lam_yoki

複式洋房

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2^#

發表於 08-9-20 16:54 |只看該作者

why? any reason?

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youma

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3^#

發表於 08-9-20 16:54 |只看該作者

Why the price will drop 20%? Why not 80%? Why not 40%? Why not 10% or 5%?

Yes, the economy looks going worse, but HOW much worse? Despite the bad outlook, there are still many positive factors.

l
The expected GDP growth of HK next year is more than 4%, which is really very good.
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The employment rate now is exceptionally low as 3.2%. Even if it goes up, it is still low. It is expected the general salary will increase slightly next year, but not decrease!
l
The demand for houses exceeds the supply. Next year there will be 50,000 couples going to marriage, far exceeding annual supply of 10,000 (or even less), not including the houses demand from family split, elite immigration and family union immigration to HK.
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Many major infrastructure projects will start next year, that can support many employment.
l
In view of low property turnover, government may probably consider to lower the stamp duty for properties over $2M (my personal guess)
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Due to low vacancy rate of properties, the rental is hard to drop significantly. The mortgage installment to income ratio is still very low (32%) only.
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China is going to lessen the macroeconomic policy to boost up the economy and stock market.
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China is very likely to maintain annual GNP growth of 10%, that can definitely benefit HK.
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The US interest rate will be kept at low level, and even be lowered again from October 2008.
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The US property price has dropped by 40%. The price drop has slowed down and the construction rate has dropped a historical low of 900,000.
l
The Most Most Important factor is: The major governments (US, UK, China, etc) will print trillions of money into the market to resume confidence. By traditional intelligence, it must push up the economies (yes, you may say another bubble is coming).

Today, the market sentiment is so bad when Hand Seng Index is still at a low level (Now PE ratio is 11, implying annual earning per share as high as 9%!), expected layoff and the expected economy downturn. But when people find the situation is not as serious as expected and the index goes up again, the view can reverse.

I guess the property price will drop a little bit more (within 5%) in the coming month and then walk still. I am surprised if the property price drops more than 20% in the coming months.

Let's see who is right.

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發表於 08-9-20 16:57 |只看該作者

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發表於 08-9-20 16:59 |只看該作者

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captainbaby

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6^#

發表於 08-9-20 17:00 |只看該作者

其實跌唔跌我就唔知, 我覺得恰當的價就入, 因為我唔識預知未來, 永遠都唔知幾時係跌到最低.

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7^#

發表於 08-9-20 17:03 |只看該作者

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發表於 08-9-20 17:05 |只看該作者

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captainbaby

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9^#

發表於 08-9-20 17:07 |只看該作者

So I never trust the agent, I trust myself only.

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10^#

發表於 08-9-20 17:09 |只看該作者

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11^#

發表於 08-9-22 23:20 |只看該作者

原文章由 youma 於 08-9-20 16:54 發表
Why the price will drop 20%? Why not 80%? Why not 40%? Why not 10% or 5%?

Yes, the economy looks going worse, but HOW much worse? Despite the bad outlook, there are still many positive factors.

l
Th ...

I agree with you at all points of your view, HK economy looks worse.The drop in prices was quite unexpected but I did not see any reason that HK property drops 20%.
I've seem some posts this few days. It was irresponsible of someone to speak 97 is coming.

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youma

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12^#

發表於 08-9-22 23:32 |只看該作者

原文章由 SingleDaddy 於 08-9-20 17:03 發表
Do not trust any agent. Why? cause they have no knowledge and they dont have to take any responsibility if you lost $$$$$.

Agent = Shxt

I believe no one trusts property agents 100%. But I respect their profession. I dare not say they all have no knowledge nor say foul language to them.

Every person has self interest but does not disclose who he/she is here. So no one here should be trusted 100% (I even don't trust myself.) By the same logic, why should people trust you SingleDaddy (and me).

I appreciate arguments and analysis, not statements without support. However, you have not provided any piece of statistics, analysis and research to support your statements... Regretful.

[ 本文章最後由 youma 於 08-9-22 23:42 編輯 ]

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13^#

發表於 08-9-22 23:57 |只看該作者

I do not trust agents too, but some agents are really professional, so I would like to pay them money as they offer me a low price for all properties. Why you say agent's shit? Did they cheat you before? No worry, you will have a good services if you buy from me, but I will charge you 2% for my agents.

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14^#

發表於 08-9-23 00:12 |只看該作者

I have to say if you lose money by your own inexpediency business or investment, NO ONE NEED responsible to you.

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15^#

發表於 08-9-23 00:17 |只看該作者

Oh,,,,sorry ! I talk too much tonight..

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drm

侯爵府

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16^#

發表於 08-9-23 02:07 |只看該作者

Singledaddy,
So do you think the mortgage rate will drop or not? Thanks.

:-D :-D :-D :-D

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bronicaps150