環球新興市場之父Mark Mobius對近日市場波動之評論
Mark Mobius on recent market volatility – May 18, 2006
It is our view that stockmarkets in BRIC countries have simply taken a much-need breather after a strong run-up, much of it driven by momentum buying. But given the reasonable level of valuations for a number of high-quality companies, we still cannot justify exiting any of these markets. In fact, we see the correction of recent days as an opportunity to buy further. True, we are relatively underweight India, where the market rise has been particularly sharp, but we do not believe that stock markets in BRIC countries represent a bubble that is about to burst. We are quite sanguine about their prospects.
There are some worries, of course. These include: higher U.S. interest rates, a weaker U.S. dollar and a pullback in commodity prices. Taking each of these factors in turn, U.S. interest rates have been moving higher for close to two years now and have already been largely discounted as a factor by the markets. As for a weaker U.S. dollar, one must not forget that Asian currencies have been undervalued for some time and that some sort of revaluation seems inevitable. Indeed, such a revaluation could help support the development of Asian countries’ domestic economies; and, finally, the inflated price of commodities. A lot of people have been saying that prices need to come down, and some correction is to be expected. But the margins are just so high that companies such as Brazil’s Petrobras can live very comfortably with oil prices as low as $30 per barrel. And while it is certainly true that the run up in a number of asset classes is momentum driven, the situation is very different from the tech bubble of the late 1990s, when investors poured money into a huge number of companies that had no earnings and paid no dividends.
As for the violence that has struck Brazil in recent days, here too there is nothing new! As investors, violence and crime in Brazil’s cities is something we have long taken into account. We view with interest the latest efforts by the authorities to crack down on the gangs that operate out of the country’s prisons by moving their ring leaders to facilities further away from the main flashpoints.
我們勞苦努力，正是為此，因我們的指望在乎永生的神。他是萬人的救主，更是信徒的救主。<提摩太前書 4:10>
發表於 
返回列表
