https://www.ft.com/content/170b7016-746c-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601
美國公司例如GM, Nike, Starbucks, Ford(我想到還有美國公司在澳門的賭場)在中國賺大錢，但這些都沒有算入中美貿易順逆差內，表面上中國出口美國506bn(5060億元)，美國出口中國130bn(1300億元)，逆差是$375bn(3750億元)，但如果計入美國公司在中國本地的銷售$221.9bn (2219億元)，差距就大幅收窄。雖然中國無法對美國進口產品進行等量的關稅懲罰，但卻能對美國公司在中國本土生產的產品和服務品質施予嚴格檢查。
當然貿易戰互有死傷，根本不應挑起。
OpinionGlobal Insight Trump forgets that US companies in China are doing a roaringtrade Deficit is not so large if sales of US subsidiaries are counted — butBeijing could hit back
JAMES KYNGE
A considerable irony underlies theimpending US-China trade war. If you take a broader view of economicstatistics, the huge American deficit with China that has so inflamed DonaldTrump suddenly starts to look a lot smaller. By orthodox measurements, the UStrade deficit was $375bn last year because US exports to China were only $130bnwhile imports from China were $506bn. But this misses an important aspect ofthe relationship that works strongly in favour of the US. Following almost 40years of US corporate investment in China, thesubsidiaries of American multinationals based in China are doing a roaringtrade selling goods and services to Chinese consumers. So large are these sales— from corporations such as GM, Nike, Starbucks, Ford and others — that theyfar exceed the value of US exports to China, says Alex Wolf, a HongKong-based economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments, an asset managementfirm. “These sales do not show up in the trade balance or the current accountbut they are part of what might be called a broader ‘aggregate economicrelationship’,” Mr Wolf said. In 2015, the lastyear for which official US statistics were available, US multinationalsubsidiaries based in China made a total of $221.9bn in sales to domesticconsumers. The goods and services sold were produced by an army of 1.7mpeople employed by US subsidiaries in the country. By contrast, China’scorporate presence in the US remains small. Official figures on Chinesecompanies’ US subsidiary sales to American consumers do not exist, but analystsestimate they are hardly material when compared with China’s exports to the US.Thus, the US-China “aggregate economic relationship” appears a lot morebalanced than the trade deficit makes it look. “Adjusting external trade flowsfor such (domestic) sales is tricky and poses caveats. But, if one wanted to doit, the numbers look different indeed,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asiaeconomics at Oxford Economics, a research firm. However, as bilateral tradetensions escalate, the large US corporate presence in China could become acritical vulnerability. As previous political spats between China and tradepartners such as Japan and South Korea flared, Chinese consumers expressedtheir ire with retail boycotts against Japanese and Korean goods. So far,Beijing has reined in the reaction from its state-run media even as Washingtonhas launched fusillades of outrage. But on Tuesday such restraint appeared toslip. China’s commerce ministry complained of “blackmail” after Mr Trump’sissued instructions to prepare tariffs on a further $200bn of Chinese exports.“If the US suffers a loss of rationality and issues a (tariff) list, China willhave to adopt strong countermeasures, which will be comprehensive measurescombining quantity and quality,” the ministry said in a statement. RecommendedGeorge Magnus Trump has a point about China’s technology abuses The worry nowfor US companies operating in China is that Beijing may respond not only withformal trade measures but also through an informal nationalist backlash. “Muchof China’s leverage over US companies in China such as GM, Ford, Starbucks,Nike and others can be enacted informally,” said Mr Wolf. “If the US is portrayed as having hurt the feelings ofthe Chinese people in the Chinese media, then you could see the sales of thesecompanies getting hit not by official regulatory action but by consumerboycotts,” he added. Particularly vulnerable, Mr Wolf said, would beChinese tourism to the US — which ranked ahead of soyabeans, aircraft,electrical machinery and other items last year as the US’s biggest singleexport to China. “China has less ammunition left in terms of imposing tariffs(but) history shows that there are various other measures it could take toinflict pain on US companies especially those present in China”, said Mr Kuijs.These include scaled up health, safety and tax checks, delaying the imports ofgoods, and boycotting US goods. “China’s official stance remains that it doesnot want a trade war, but is willing to fight one.”
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