However, I don't agree with your comment of carry trade funds leaving the HK markets. If they did, how would you explain the 4000 points rebound from the bottom. Surely not the trading volume shown since 17th Aug is not just bargain hunting from Uncle Lee and early birds from China.
Any way, keep up with your efforts to track the market. Much appreciated.
Sure...Carry trade sometimes has no so direct relation with the stock market. Carry Trade, presently, present the JPY cross rate, e.g. NZDJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY,. Coz of the difference of the interest rate, speculators borrow JPY and put the money into various market.
Carry trade only occupy very very little transaction volume (FX) round the world. It is not supposed to move the bigger piece (e.g. world stock market), they are funny stuff.
But, one thing we can know, partially coz of these carry trade, the whole market become not stable.
Stock market needed to consider further their fundamental issue. CN stock market is different from JP and US. CN has very good fundamental support, such as stable CPI, excellent GDP 11.6% y/y, rebound is not supprised. However, in technical, the stock price break the last historical high and then drop rapidly. This is not a good thing.
Mr. Investor, let's study further together :)
Which market is your favourite? STX, FX, XAU, CRU are my favourite... :)
I am only interested in HK and China stock market.
Reasons:
(a) The growth engine of China is in full speed in next two decades. It won't be surprising to see double digit growth for next 5 years despite US down turn.
(b) China is almost immuned from terriorist crisis,
local politicial uncertainty. It is the safest place to put your money. I may sound cynical, the country can recover quicker than other countries in any big natural disastrars because the officials and the citizens are used to news on coal mine collapse and river floodings.
(c) We live in HKSAR China, the best place to understand and keep informed of China market and economy.
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