I think will not. People are smarter now and will not sell their property so low. But if there's SARS price, the econ would be super super bad. At that time, people who wants to buy property maybe fearful and not willing to buy at that time.
Just like stock. It's the 'shun sum' (faith) problem.
You can use another point of view...HSBC has dropped to $55 this time. However, the flat price only drops by 20-30%. For takoosing, the SAS price is only $3,000 per feet but now the price can still stand at $5,800 - $7,000 this time. It seems that the flat price really stand very strong this time. Most of flat owners are afraid the price will go up after the end of financial turmoil (like SAS; 911; 89 & 84, etc). If the wordwide economy recover later, they trust the flat price should go up in short time...
In addition, please note this is a wordwide financial turmoil but not region financail turmoil (not like 89; SAS). If financail turmoil really last for long time, this means low interest rate should also nmaintain for a long time. This may be a good news to flat owner who can affort the flat price with stable income. Therefore, HK flat price should not go down to SAS price unless interest rate go up but it seems it should not happen in short..
It will continue to drop this year, maybe with a small rebound in between, but overall must be drop. I sold a flat at a very low price in Oct 2008, a few days ago there was a similar one sold at 6.3% lower.
I think there are plenty of rich people looking for cheap properties, so if there are cheap properties, there will be someone willing to buy. From last Oct - Jan 09 (4 mths), there were 6 apartments sold in my real estate which is a lot, compared to there are only 600 apartments in my real estate.
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