Howard Marks is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management.
Market Overvaluation: Howard Marks warns that U.S. equities, especially the broad S & P 500,
are priced far above historical fundamentals; the "magnificent seven" tech giants
are especially lofty, but even the remaining 493 stocks are significantly overvalued.
Mean‑Reversion & Psychology: After a 16‑year stretch without a major correction,
investors mistakenly assume current conditions will persist;
psychological optimism drives bubbles.
Historical Parallel: The last similar environment was the early‑1990s tech boom,
where despite "irrational exuberance" markets kept rising for years before a correction.
Defensive Tilt to Credit: Marks suggests shifting some assets
to corporate credit/fixed income, which offers contractual returns and is historically
more resilient when equity valuations are high.
U.S. Still Top Investment Destination: He views the United States as the best
(though slightly less dominant) place to invest, despite some global markets
offering cheaper, lower‑quality alternatives.
Caution, Not Alarm: He isn't sounding an immediate crash alarm,
but urges investors to be prudent and consider defensive positioning.
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