最近發現了一個『投資一二三Investment-ABC』的blog (http://investment-abc.blogspot.com/), 原創文章很不錯, 如:
良好意願
當某國的主權評級被調低後, 該國政府立刻出來說評級機構計算錯誤, 但縱然如此股市依然急跌.
香港的政府高官出來說什麼香港經濟基調良好, 呼籲大家不要恐慌, 而香港股市近期的跌幅以百分比計卻幾近全球之冠.
在市場中炒作, 最怕是聽到托市言論, 這一托, 本來想沽貨的不再沽了, 弄不好還掏些錢出來多買些; 如果托市後僥倖碰上升市就真算走運, 但一般大跌市是誰都托不起的, 股價江河日下, 直至極度恐慌後才會出現那驚天動地的反彈; 而最不幸的是大部分投資者都不能熬到返家鄉那一天.
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The Road to Hell …
Before the opening of the stock market in Hong Kong today (2011.08.09), in view of the drop of over 600 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a HK high ranking official kindly advised investors through the media to the effect that “Small Investors need to be careful, and commit only after sizing up their own abilities(小投資者要小心,量力而為).”
Before the echo of that message dies out, the Hang Seng Index opened low and rapidly dropped more than 1600 points to 18,868 in the first trading hour today. An upward momentum was then gathered. The Hang Seng Index in the next few trading hours surged up for over 1000 points. Certain individual stocks rocketed for over 10% from the day low price.
Some investors put the blame, however unfairly, on the official who advised investors to be cautious, making them think twice before jumping in the big bargain at the first hour of the day. One of them grumbled, “The road to hell is paved with good intentions. (好心做壞事).”
I don’t agree with this kind of comment from the investors (since investors need to be responsible for their own decisions all the time), but it is what some people might think, isn’t it?
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「低買高沽」,這是一句在投資市場上流傳的神話。
能做到「低買高沽」固然是再好也沒有,但一般事與願違,能長期做到「低買高沽」的人一個也沒有。
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Money Average
Two methods, one being “Buy and Hold” the other being “Money Averaging”, have been profusely advocated by investment strategists. In my view, these methods are strictly for the birds. Let's see some examples.
The Dow in 1982 came back to where it was in 1962 after 20 years’ severe inflation. “Buy and Hold” or “Money Averaging” can only wind you up in poverty in these two decades in the States. How many investment periods of “20-year” do you have?
What if you put all you money in the Japanese stock market in 1989? Would you say 22 years holding on to the same stocks is a long term investment? That is pretty much like what the richest investor has been advocating. His time frame for holding stock is FOREVER. And 22 years seem like “forever” to most people.
Nobody would imagine watching their investment portfolio ending up to be about one quarter of what it was 22 years ago. Even worse, it is not just a one off crash shared by all. It is rather a long term torture with ups and downs, while some other Asian markets have been flourishing.
The question is: What actions could you have taken to make sure that you would not get caught up in a situation like this?
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隨手翻開一些投資寶鑑、投資指南、投資心得、投資不易法門類的法籍,不難發現他們百部一腔,千篇一律,不外乎甚麼 “要成功投資必先要對市場運作及投資的對象機構深入了解,然後觀乎宏觀的世界經濟和利率走勢,再加以技術分析以決定出入市價位,便可以達致低買高沽,獲取長期而又穩定的利用。”
如果讀者真要看這些,對不起,這裡欠奉,因為這種內容並沒有根據。
首先,了解市場運作最深的是經紀,他們都是投資聖手嗎?他們能有長期穩定的投資回報嗎?真有的話,他們就是巴菲特,還要那份微薄薪水和不穩定的佣金幹嘛?
其次,對上市公司認識最深的莫如會計師,要說看年報,分析招股書內容,真要指出那些是誤差、估計、假設,甚至誤導,誰比這些 “始作俑者” 更清楚?他們分析財務報表的能力,誰與爭鋒?一般證券分析員都瞠乎其後。那麼,會計師成為投資高手了罷?誰都不用說了,讀者們自有定論。
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